14th – 27th November All Weather Musings and Christmas Lights

Remember, remember the 5th November. Some will know this as Bonfire Night, for me it feels like the last day I had a winning days punting. A slight exaggeration, but a brutal November nonetheless, infact that would probably be an understatement. I feel I’ve batted well, seen the form and angles into races but just ‘done it in’ wholesale. Stumps all over the place. I even tailed a fair judge in on jumps bet on Tuesday, tanking all over the field, trading short in the run and fell. It never rains but it pours. I guess all I can do is keep plodding away and history has taught me that the tide will turn in due course. 

Safe to say my frustrations of late have been compounded of late by the overnight market moves of late. If there’s one that I think will be grossly underestimated in the market, I usually say to the wife ”I think I’ve found one” or something along those lines. She’ll nod, pretend she’s listening, agree with my reasoning when in truth she doesn’t give a flying and then go back to what she’s doing. Three occasions this week she’s had to hear my then rant about how horses have been smashed up overnight. You guessed it, 20/1 x 2 and 16/1 winners all unbacked this end because people want BOOM their early price bets at fantasy island prices. Peter Ling (@SBCinfo) did a really good thread on tipsters claiming unrealistic overnight prices. I genuinely don’t know what the point in betting them is, punt the ricks and find your accounts shut in an instant. Those tipping into markets weak markets like this surely aren’t punting themselves? They can’t be can they? As Peter said, it’s tipsters making profit in theory but not in practice, prices lasting 60 odds seconds, what the hells the point in that. Every man and his dog knows that there is pittance available on ‘the machine’ and anyone taking ‘unders’ further harms the prices with the firms. Are these tipsters backing their own selections? The fact that there’s no money on Betfair suggests not. If they were any good, then the bookie accounts would be long gone. I’ll pen a full column on the subject when I get a proper chance, but give the thread a view as some ‘interesting’ views so check it out. 

It was nice to see Bit Harsh win for the column earlier today, getting back on the all-weather clearly showing him in a better light to the soup at Yarmouth. I had ummed and aahed about betting him this morning but decided It was probably best to wait until near the off. A quick smoke 10mins before the off, get back to the computer and have a small dabble was the plan of action. That plan went out the window when I got collared by the neighbour and he spent what seemed like an eternity waffling away about Christmas lights. Yes, fucking Christmas lights. It wasn’t an eternity but on return there was 3f to run, the rest is history. That’ll teach me to venture out into the outside world. Cheers, Gino. Again, it never rains but it pours.

Anyway, you aren’t here to read my punting woes/frustrations, below are four horses that are potentially ones to oppose or back in the short, medium or long term.

Wednesday 16th November

18:30 Kempton Seeing as Alan King hopefully did some long-term readers a turn earlier today, I’m going to put forward another one of his runners that I feel has been allotted a more than fair mark. The horse in question is Sea Squared who reappeared off of a 103-day break and the run looked like it would bring him on a great deal fitness wise. Burly would be an understatement. The horse in question had actually caught my eye on debut at Salisbury, so much so I thought he was worthy of support next time at Haydock. He plugged away that day shaping as if in need of a trip and a little bit more time. Drawn wide in 12, Charlie Bishop took a pull out the stalls, in a field that split into two groups he ended up too far out of his ground. Still going well 3.5f from home, he was shaken up coming into the home straight, still showing clear signs of greenness and kept on under minimal pressure, the jockey finishing up in the irons and he wasn’t given anything like a hard time. Size and scope a plenty, the knackers have come off since the last run and by a sire in Sea The Moon who’s progeny improve with racing, I expect a lot more throughout his 3yo season. Certainly a case of job done in regards to getting a mark of 67 that underestimates his long-term ability by some margin. 

Friday 18th November

17:45 Kempton- I’ve had Krona earmarked since her debut run for a test of stamina and handicaps. Like the above horse Sea Squared, she’s by Sea The Moon and highly likely to relish a trip when the time is right. Kept to a mile on all three starts, she has excuses on each occasion, speed test on debut patently didn’t suit, the wheels spun in swamp like conditions at Donny. Stall 13 at Kempton is largely a negative but helped us here in obtaining a lowly mark of 60. Krona went off a totally unconsidered 774.44 BSP and despite being beaten 11 lengths I feel there was enough to make her of interest long term, the filly ended up posted three deep throughout, covered a fair amount of extra ground but stuck to her task dourly late doors. Classier, speedier and ultimately better horses got away from her late but she wasn’t hard pressed by any means and I was suitably impressed with the way she stuck to her guns. For all she flopped on heavy ground at Donny, the dam Kwanza was a winner on soft ground and it may have been that Krona was too weak to handle it at this stage of her career. Weather Front, Artistic Language, Four Nations and Slip Of The Tongue all were related to the dam Kwanza and needed staying distances to be shown to best, no doubt Krona will also. She’ll make light work of 60 in due course.

Saturday 19th November

12:05 Lingfield- This 6f novice is a race I feel will work out short term and long term, I could have put forward multiple horses in here to be honest, the one I’ve opted for is the Roger Variance trained Al Muzn. A steadily run race here as if often the case around ‘Leafy’ didn’t play to his strengths at all. Jumped well enough, the Oasis Dream colt ended up slotting into a mid div position, ridden at various stages he ended up half caught in a pocket 3f from home. Outpaced and showing more signs of inexperience he started to learn on the job and finished with a rare old rattle clocking 11.08 and 11.15 final sectionals to finish full of running. His half-brother Royal Musketeer took a step forward and won on his second start and I’d be surprised if Al Muzn couldn’t do similar. Looks a good thing in a standard 6 or 7f novice.

19:00 Wolverhampton- I put Mr Mistoffelees up on the Friday Barstewards show, he didn’t reward support this day but as expected took a step forward and there’s certainly a bigger run still in the locker from him. Physically the type to do well with a winter on his back, from a yard generally doesn’t waste entries (Irish 2000 and Derby Entry) and also take a slow and steady approach to training. The Siyouni colt ended up three deep around the early stages before finding a spot in the rear of mid div, the steadily run race here did him no favours and he was still travelling on the snaff at the 3f pole. Shaken up coming into the straight, he kept on steadily, hanging left slightly under pressure something that I’m happy to put down to greenness for now. Stayed on well enough without Norton resorting to the whip at all. He’s a big raw boat and that was essentially his first run given how little he had shown on debut. Mentally he’ll take another step forward and I think he’s capable of winning a novice if THEY want him to, if not fingers crossed, they get the third spin right and we have something to really go to war with off of a low base. A colt that I’m a fair bit excited about.

At the end of the day, everything comes down to price so feel free to give me a nudge on Twitter if any of these are running and you want to know if I’m pressing blue, pink or sitting on the fence

Thoughts, comments, retweets and feedback are greatly appreciated as always.

Be lucky,

Quentin

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